Key point emerging consensus on new Colorado River management plan
After months of stalemate, negotiators from the seven Colorado River basin states are considering a new plan to manage the shrinking river that shifts water releases from reservoir-based quotas to flow-based percentages. This approach would allocate water releases from Lakes Powell and Mead based on the river’s natural flow measured over a rolling three-year average, reflecting the reality of reduced and more variable water supply due to long-term drought and climate change.
New plan shifts from fixed releases to flow responsive percentages
The new concept represents a major departure from the traditional management method that set fixed water release volumes based on reservoir levels. By basing releases on a percentage of the river’s natural flow, the plan aims to be more adaptive to fluctuating water availability. This is critical because the Colorado River’s flow has shrunk significantly since the original 1922 agreement, which no longer matches current hydrologic realities. For example, this year’s expected inflow to Lake Powell is only 54% of the 1991-2020 average, ranking among the five driest years in six decades.
Upper and Lower Basin states face pressure to share cuts equitably
The seven states are divided into Upper Basin (Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming) and Lower Basin (California, Nevada, Arizona) groups, each with different water needs and challenges. The Upper Basin relies on snowmelt and precipitation upstream of the reservoirs and argues it has already absorbed much of the flow decline. The Lower Basin depends on releases from the reservoirs and claims it has made significant reductions, pressing the Upper Basin to agree to further cuts. The new flow-based percentage system could help balance these competing demands more fairly by linking allocations directly to actual river conditions.
Critical decisions remain on hydrology calculations and enforcement
While the new framework shows promise, key details remain unresolved. The states must agree on how to calculate the river’s natural flow, which excludes human interventions like diversions. This baseline is essential since the release percentages will be based on it. Additionally, negotiators need to determine the exact percentage of flow to allocate to each basin and how to enforce reductions if the Upper Basin fails to deliver its share. These details will shape the success or failure of the agreement.
Federal deadlines impose urgency on finalizing the plan
Federal officials have set clear deadlines to accelerate negotiations. By November 11, 2024, the states must indicate whether they have reached a deal, followed by a detailed plan submission due by February 14, 2025. The U. S. Bureau of Reclamation will continue analyzing a wide range of management alternatives, releasing a draft environmental analysis by the end of 2024 and a final plan by summer 2026. These timelines reflect the urgency given that current river management rules expire at the end of 2026.
Current river conditions underline the need for change
The Colorado River system serves 40 million people but is under significant stress. Both Lakes Powell and Mead are only about one-third full. Projections indicate that Lake Powell’s water level could fall below the minimum power pool by December 2026, which would halt hydroelectric power generation for seven states. The most likely scenario shows no net inflow to Lake Powell over the next year, with declining reservoir levels continuing for two years. This supply-demand gap highlights the necessity of a new management plan focused on realistic water availability.
Expert opinions recognize potential and challenges of new approach
Experts like Anne Castle, former assistant secretary for water and science at the U. S. Interior Department, view the flow-based percentage system as a promising response to shrinking and volatile supplies. She emphasizes that basing allocations on recent hydrology aligns supply with demand more effectively. However, she also cautions that the plan’s success depends heavily on the details of flow calculations, percentage allocations, and enforcement mechanisms.
Summary checklist of key highlights for Colorado River management plan. – Shift from fixed reservoir-based water releases to flow-based percentage allocations. – Releases from Lakes Powell and Mead tied to a rolling three-year average of natural river flow. – Addresses major decline in river inflow: 54% of 1991-2020 average expected this year. – Upper Basin states argue they have borne flow reductions; Lower Basin states demand cuts too. – Critical decisions pending on natural flow calculation and percentage shares. – Federal deadlines: deal indication by Nov 11, 2024 and detailed plan by Feb 14, 2025. – Reservoir levels critically low, risking hydroelectric power loss by end of 2026. – Experts see promise but warn of challenges in implementation and enforcement. – Plan aims to reflect hydrologic realities rather than outdated legal agreements
This emerging consensus represents an important step toward sustainable, adaptive management of the Colorado River in an era of persistent drought and climate change. The coming months will be crucial as states negotiate the details that will determine the river’s future and the water security of millions.
